So you think you can run for president

ONE of the things I admire about Jonathan Bernstein’s blogging on the political science of the presidential race is the determinative role he grants to media treatment of the candidates. Not because, as a member of the media, I like to feel important; if anything reporters and commentators usually like to pretend they play as small a role as possible in influencing the public’s choices. Rather, it’s because the analysis strips away the fiction that the media are a neutral communications channel between candidates and voters, and turns attention towards the real influence that the media’s natural biases—the bias towards surprise, the bias towards cliched sentimental background stories, the bias against sophistication or complexity, etc—exercise on campaigns. This years Republican primaries have provided an excellent illustration of the power of a theory of presidential campaigns that grants media narratives a central role, because only such a theory can explain the apparently crazy swings in support we’ve seen amongst all the candidates except Mitt Romney.

Here’s how Mr Bernstein describes what’s at stake in Iowa.

Perhaps the most important point of all: It probably doesn’t matter what order the top three finish in, as long as Romney, Paul, and Santorum occupy the top three spots. The biggest consequence will be that the other three campaigns will be almost certainly irreparably damaged…

As for the top three, what matters isn’t the results in Iowa, but how those results are spun and how they affect the coming states. Three things produce post-Iowa spin: the raw difference between expectations, generally determined by polling, and actual results; how party actors react; and media biases. The first, the expectations game, will favor Santorum, since just a week ago he was still in a jumble for fourth place. Media biases that matter favor new things, unexpected things, and keeping the contest alive for as long as possible; all of those will tend to help Santorum. Another dynamic to watch: Will Santorum’s surge persuade undecided conservatives to rally around him? If so, a strong pro-Santorum spin would lead to a big bounce in New Hampshire and make him competitive in South Carolina and perhaps beyond.

The critical issue, in this account, is the directionality of the storyline taking shape in the media. Media bias towards the unexpected plays a crucial role. Things that don’t play a major role in this account include candidates’ stances on issues, longstanding popularity of certain candidates with particular constituencies, or even the strength of candidates’ efforts to sell themselves to constituents via advertising, organisation, and so forth.

Obviously, what Mr Bernstein is talking about here is the discrete effect of the Iowa caucuses on the campaign. Candidates’ positioning on issues, organisational efforts, advertising and so forth may have been significant earlier in the campaign and may resume playing a role later, once the field is winnowed down. But if you take this view, the effects of the Iowa caucus, or rather how it is spun, will dwarf any such factors; and the spin will dwarf the actual results themselves. This view comports with Nate Silver’s astute remarks just before Mr Santorum began his recent surge in Iowa:

This is also a case in which the polling may actually influence voter behavior. In particular, if one of these candidates does well in the highly influential Des Moines Register poll that should be published on New Year’s Eve or thereabouts, that candidate might be a pretty good bet to overperform polling as voters use that as a cue on caucus night to determine which one is most viable.

I’d also pay a lot of attention to the press coverage for each candidate. Right now, for instance, there seem to be a fair number of stories about Mr. Santorum, which suggests that it is his turn to “surge” in the polls.

Overall, this emphasis on the storytelling aspect of the campaign, and on the snowballing effects of rising popularity due to positive media coverage because your popularity is rising (or the converse, on the way down) seems to me to be the only theory of the primaries compatible with a year of polls.

 this, media, comment, 2012, economist, politics, blog, report, recommend, think, primaries, that, media primaries, topic, doubleclick, view, tdqk, blo5, tdqk blo5, subs=n, blo5 subs=n, wsub=n, subs=n wsub=n, sdn=n, wsub=n sdn=n, ord=111897027, with, from, link, most, reply, this blog, president, think president, permalink, primaries think, profile, recommend comment, recommend report, report comment, permanent, report permanent, permanent link, link this, this comment, comment permalink, permalink reply, like, reply view, american, iowa, src=, more, href=, world, width=, height=, border=, alt=, american politics, about, here, border= alt=, related, correspondents, blogs, href= doubleclick, jump, doubleclick jump, jump tdqk, ord=111897027 src=, src= doubleclick, doubleclick tdqk, ord=111897027 width=, width= height=, height= border=, they, santorum, 2012 media, candidates, economics, sz=125×125, economist blogs, political, which, have, will, news, topics, blog correspondents, after, democracyinamerica, blogs democracyinamerica, democracyinamerica 2012, click, click here, business, exchange, what, campaigns, recommended, named, named after, http, culture, america, bias, campaign, caucus, government, readers, comments, most recommended, when, follow, blog named, things, science, role, january, notebook, week, twitter, public, just, iowa caucus, good, items, time, election, their, name, commented, most commented, life, analysis, policy, page, takes, takes name, name from, here href=, help, britain, americas, technology, free, theory, democracy, because, stories, republican, such, candidate, than, vote, people, next, flavor, brian, alt= click, provide, blog takes, columnist, site, science technology, latest, free exchange, babbage, lexington, democracy america, issues, politics this, like this, rather, between, towards, against, three, long, results, make, also, there, interesting, time vote, mission, failure, mission failure, link exchange, last, were, them, guest, iawmaij, guest iawmaij, events, both, find, society, bernstein, presidential, race, subscribe, newsletters, europe, asia, africa, markets, data, world 2012, latest blog, posts, blog posts, eastern, americas view, game, bagehot, banyan, buttonwood, multimedia, charlemagne, schumpeter, facebook, play, voters, attention, influence, bias against, romney, other, those, spin, first, still, surge, advertising, field, coverage, right, seems, year, interest, favourite, weak, some, news media, credit, slideshow, arts, page next, comment media, called, definitely, today, accurate, doug, pascover, doug pascover, think good, comment think, security, found, mail, serving, burstingpipe, serving burstingpipe, adserver, burstingpipe adserver, pos=mpu, sdn=n pos=mpu, sz=300×250, here find, find more, more href=, british, column, cultural, tree, language, chinese, 03t22, 2012 03t22, 03t22 january, http media, media economist, sites, economist sites, logo, grants, grants media, register, account, states, finance, business finance, economics science, approaches, eastern approaches, gulliver, baobab, johnson, cassandra, newsbook, clausewitz, prospero, ideas, work, editor, audio, print, issue, previous, this week, content, this content, usually, turns, bias towards, sophistication, against sophistication, complexity, sophistication complexity, power, narratives, only, produce, generally, polling, biases, media biases, around, hampshire, popularity, themselves, forth, caucuses, iowa caucuses, down, effects, voter, behavior, these, does, well, poll, each, seem, your, this media, always, story, narrative, audience, share, left, euro, views, pkp801, questions, questions with, regards, with regards, thing, induced, media induced, bandwagon, induced bandwagon, that called, forget, twin, forget twin, ajburt, blame, credit blame, wholeheartedly, agree, wholeheartedly agree, past, month, flavor month, month flavor, interesting accurate, interested, opinion, directly, from this, reason, good reason, chart, empower, when empower, personally, personally favourite, dell, brian dell, media definitely, desperately, needed, desperately needed, economic, think this, brian think, think both, date, restrainedradical, span, have span, problem, many, rise, cresting, rise cresting, fall, cresting fall, into, saying, what saying, @restrainedradical, colleagues, christmas, christmas they, opinions, study, politics society, href= http, days, politics economics, &raquo, column blog, financial, european, features, index, books, feedback, text, html, text html, charset=utf, html charset=utf, article, default, sites default, files, default files, admire, things admire, admire about, jonathan, about jonathan, jonathan bernstein, blogging, bernstein blogging, blogging political, political science, science presidential, presidential race, determinative, race determinative, determinative role, role grants, treatment, media treatment, treatment candidates, dcopt=ist, sdn=n dcopt=ist, pos=ldr, dcopt=ist pos=ldr, sz=728×90, pos=ldr sz=728×90, tile=1, sz=728×90 tile=1, tile=1 ord=111897027, pos=sub, sdn=n pos=sub, sz=223×90, pos=sub sz=223×90, tile=2, sz=223×90 tile=2, tile=2 ord=111897027, alt= economist, digital, mobile, digital mobile, jobs, search, terms, elections, invitation, economics invitation, game theory, bagehot notebook, graphic, detail, graphic detail, blighty, leviathan, buttonwood notebook, lexington notebook, charlemagne notebook, debates, technology culture, economist audio, special, reports, content facebook, facebook twitter, tweet, twitter tweet, button, tweet button, feel, important, anything, reporters, small, possible, that media, influence that, natural, provided, crazy, swings, mitt, mitt romney, perhaps, point, matter, paul, almost, matters, spun, coming, difference, difference between, expectations, actual, actual results, favor, place, unexpected, another, watch, would, competitive, beyond, this account, taking, shape, media bias, major, particular, even, efforts, effect, been, this view, dwarf, will dwarf, case, actually, influential, moines, moines register, register poll, pretty, press, each candidate, turn, polls, rising, shaping, horse, horse race, this year, little, hero, during, where, writers, developments, think they, they also, reflect, also reflect, reflect news, industry, media industry, increasing, industry increasing, competence, increasing competence, performing, competence performing, core, performing core, revenue, core revenue, generating, revenue generating, function, generating function, holding, function holding, holding public, public attention, creating, attention creating, creating campaign, campaign narratives, narratives with, frequent, with frequent, twists, frequent twists, twists turns, shifting, turns shifting, shifting audience, perspective, audience perspective, empathy, perspective empathy, submit, money, voting, please, stay, policy this, next page, next last, last page, page last, deeper, comment questions, beng, example, hear, wrong, that this, nothing, phenomenon, seriously, orwelle, comment that, charming, this charming, matt, charming matt, peaks, comment forget, ajburt 2012, read, without, words, comment credit, existentialbagel, series, primary, comment wholeheartedly, connect, dots, connect dots, republican candidates, comment flavor, silencedogood20, population, economy, actively, actively follow, follow politics, self, decisions, their decisions, benefit, directly from, comment interesting, view doug, pascover profile, profile doug, 2012 think, includes, barbama, comment when, toastedtoast, comment personally, dell 2012, outcome, consumer, view guest, iawmaij profile, profile guest, iawmaij 2012, network, profit, national, comment desperately, trustbutverify, much, articles, something, state, version, comment brian, people their, their news, comment have, erniejpdx, among, best, comment rise, teacup775, comment what, same, comment @restrainedradical, seven839, comment christmas, correspondents share, share their, thoughts, their thoughts, thoughts opinions, opinions america, kinetic, america kinetic, brand, kinetic brand, brand politics, politics policy, produces, policy produces, produces blog, after study, study american, written, s tile=8, sz=351×49 tile=8, tile=8 ord=111897027, correspondents provide, reporting, provide reporting, reporting analysis, society culture, follow twitter, twitter &raquo, provide comment, comment analysis, political cultural, under, used, continent, provides, often, financial markets, archive, defence, defence security, diplomacy, security diplomacy, soldier, weekly, smith, sports, every, public policy, video, videographics, books arts, commentary, management, chinese what, what chinese, chinese language, politics right, right republican, over, over past, bottom, pos=mpu bottom,